Each year, the Super Bowl signals the end of the football season but the start of something else: the housing market’s busiest stretch. Traditionally, the months following the big game produce the strongest home sales activity of the year, with purchases generally peaking in May and June. Builders typically achieve their strongest absorptions during the spring selling season as buyers are motivated to find a home before the start of the next school year or summer vacations.
After a 2025 spring selling season that builders widely described as soft and disappointing, the industry is watching closely to see how the 2026 edition unfolds. The next few months are expected to provide an early read on the trajectory of the housing market this year.
The market remains challenged by consumer confidence and buyer hesitation, though interest rates have declined to the low 6s and high 5s. Another wrinkle facing the housing market is the wave of severe winter weather in January that hit many parts of the country and the extent to which these events pushed back the beginning of the spring selling season.
Below are thoughts shared by public builders during earnings calls and commentary provided to BUILDER by private builders about how the early weeks of the spring selling season are trending.
“When we see rates move and hover right around, [we hope] it does spur some activity in our sales office… There’s certainly not a lack of interest. It’s breaking through the consumer confidence and seeing people feel good about their decision to move forward. We are encouraged by the traffic we see out there today. I do believe that if you look at today over last year at this time, there’s a little more balance of inventory. So we believe we are in a good position as we move into the spring selling season.” — Paul Romanowski, president and CEO, D.R. Horton
“We are finding a way to get the best of both worlds and make sure that we are tackling the affordability challenge while still moving into or closer into a built-to-order model that we want to be. As we go into the spring selling season, our goal is going to be to sell dirt in a higher percentage than spec while still having some spec available, especially in the entry-level price points. The spring selling season is going to kind of dictate what we are able to do with incentives.” — Ryan Marshall, president and CEO, PulteGroup
“We don’t yet know how the spring selling season will unfold, but we are encouraged by improved selling conditions in January when compared to the more difficult demand dynamics we experienced in December… As we look into Q1, I think there’s still some noise in the system and builders, including ourselves, who are clearing inventory. We do expect the spring selling season to be better, so we see opportunities for improved returns in the form of absorptions and margins [in the first half of the year].” — Phillippe Lord, CEO, Meritage Homes
“Given our record cycle times and advantageous direct construction costs, we are well-positioned to take advantage of any favorable market conditions during the spring selling season and accelerate our starts.” — Rob Francescon, executive chairman, Century Communities
“Last year, while everyone was very hopeful that we were going to have a great spring selling season, it did not mature, and it did not turn out that way. So, we’re hopeful this year that that’s going to be the case. There’s a lot of publicity out there on a variety of fronts right now on housing. We’re hopeful that there will be tailwinds for us going into the spring and it will be better.” — Scott Dixon, chief financial officer, Century Communities
“Since mid-January, we have seen an increase in overall traffic and sales consistent with the start of the spring selling season. While it is early, we are cautiously encouraged by the increase in activity over the past month. As we head into the heart of the spring selling season, we are very comfortable with the levels of specs in our inventory and their stage of construction.” — Douglas Yearly, CEO, Toll Brothers
“We’re seeing green shoots for the spring selling season, and we’ve got very good visibility on margin catalysts, average sales price growth, and profitable land sales into the back half of the year. Whether we’re able to achieve our goal will depend on stability and normalization in market conditions, but we’re working very hard to make it happen.” — Allan Merrill, CEO, Beazer Homes
“Anybody that was in Texas in January knows that we had one of the worst weather events really in our history. So it’s really hard to bench sales January to February because in January, we were basically out of business for seven to ten days. That said, February looks to be off to a good start and we’re really quite encouraged.” — Jim Brickman, co-founder and CEO, Green Brick Partners
“The good news is we’re seeing that the quantity of buyers are a lot stronger in the spring so far. We have been able to raise prices in some communities. But by and large, we are still as an industry working through inventory.” — Jed Dolson, president and chief operating officer, Green Brick Partners
“We are cautiously optimistic. We have refined our land pipeline and recruited talent and we’re happy with how things have started to pay off. I anticipate in 2026 we will continue to see the benefits of the work we’ve done. The spring selling season feels a bit stronger than last year, which was a disappointment. But, it’s early. Generally, at least relative to 2025, we like what we see so far.” — Brandon Jones, CEO, Davidson Homes
“We are cautiously optimistic and expect incremental improvement as the year progresses. We expect rates to continue hovering around the low 6% range, and buyers are settling into the fact that this is normal. We expect demand to be there, but prospects remain more cautious. Right now, the market is turning back into a real market coming off peak levels; a more balanced market with normal negotiation and selective prospects that want individualized service and attention.” Marc Friedman, senior vice president of sales, Kolter Homes
“The industry is transitioning from a correction phase to a normalization phase. Higher rates slowed activity, but they also helped rebalance supply and demand. Buyer expectations are recalibrating and builders are operating with greater discipline around starts and pricing.” — Bion Davis, director of sales, Viera Builders
