Residential

Metros in Florida Remain Most Overvalued Housing Markets in the U.S.

Buyers are paying more than a 38% premium for the typical home in several major Florida markets, including Tampa, Miami, Jacksonville, and Orlando.

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Zillow named the five top markets for first-time buyers, offering a combination of affordability, low competition, and growth prospects.

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Florida remains home to the most overvalued metro areas in the country, according to researchers at Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University. The Sunshine State is home to nine of the 15 most overvalued markets in the United States, led by Tampa, Jacksonville, Orlando, and Miami.

Currently, buyers are paying an almost 39% premium for the typical home in Miami, placing the area as the 11th most overvalued area in the entire country. Just a year ago, premiums in Miami were among some of the lowest in the list of measured metros in the United States.

“South Florida home prices have started to increase over the past few months. It is hard to tell if it is the summer selling season effect, or the reigniting of price growth in the area,” said Ken H. Johnson, real estate economist with Florida Atlantic University. “However, premium scores, the difference between actual average and statistically predicted prices, are remaining stable, suggesting that the rise in prices in the Miami area is probably more seasonally related.”

Tampa, where buyers are paying an average 42.56% premium for a home, tops the list for Florida metros followed by North Port, 41.93%; Cape Coral, 41.66%; Lakeland, 40.26%; Palm Bay, 39.89%; Jacksonville, 38.37%; Orlando, 38.18%; and Deltona, 38%.

Housing prices in Florida are being bracketed by two market forces keeping them stable. Higher mortgage rates, reaching almost 7%, are preventing prices from re-escalating, while a limited supply of homes on the market and sustained demand combine to keep prices from falling.

Many metros areas in the country also have seen upticks in premiums as housing markets around the country appear to be stabilizing. Atlanta and Detroit are the two most overvalued markets in the country, with buyers paying a 47.34% premium and a 46.08% premium on a home, respectively.

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