Case-Shiller Indices Show Price Softening

Home price growth trails inflation by more than one percentage point, meaning real home values have edged down over the past year despite nominal growth.

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National home prices increased 1.4% in November, in line with the previous month, according to the latest S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index. 

November’s results confirm that the housing market has entered a period of tepid growth,” said Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “National home prices were only 1.4% higher than a year ago, unchanged from October’s annual pace and still near the weakest showing since mid-2023.”

The recorded price growth in November 2025 was less than half the 3.7% annual price growth recorded in November 2024. While consumer inflation dipped below 3% for the first time since August, home price growth trails inflation by roughly 1.3 percentage points, according to Godec, meaning real home values have effectively edged down over the past year. 

The 10-City Composite Index indicated an annual price increase of 2.0%, up from a 1.9% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite Index posted a year-over-year increase of 1.4%, largely in line with the year-over-year gains recorded in October. 

Midwestern and Northeastern markets, led by Chicago (+5.7%) and New York (+5.0%), posted year-over-year price gains. Conversely, Sun Belt and Southern cities, including Tampa (-3.9%), Phoenix (-1.4%), Dallas (-1.4%), and Miami (-1.0%), all saw year-over-year declines.

On a month-over-month basis, the national and 10-City Composite indices dropped 0.1% while the 20-City Composite dropped 0.03%. 

“Monthly price changes were mixed but leaned negative in November, underscoring persistent softness,” Godec said. “On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, 15 of the 20 major metro areas saw prices decline from October. Only a handful of markets—including Los Angeles, San Diego, Miami, New York, and Phoenix—eked out slight gains before seasonal adjustment.”

“High mortgage rates continue to cast a long shadow over housing,” concluded Godec. “Thirty-year loan rates hovered in the mid-6% range during November, weighing on affordability even as they eased slightly from recent peaks. This elevated financing cost continues to cap home price growth. Inflation has erased most nominal gains, leaving home values essentially flat in real terms.”

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