Texas is often at the center of the conversation around the housing market in the U.S. The Lone Star State is home to four of the 10 largest markets for new-home closings nationally—Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin. Entering 2026, the market in Texas reflects the national landscape: choppy and some location-specific volatility.
The Zonda Dealmakers event in Central Texas will highlight the dynamics impacting the new-home sector in several markets in Texas and the factors to watch moving through 2026.
While Austin was the first market in Texas to pull back, it was beginning to bottom in terms of new-home construction activity at the end of 2025. San Antonio, which had held up, saw a downward acceleration in construction activity to end 2025. Demographics in both markets remain positive, with forecasted job growth, household growth, and income growth, all positives for housing demand.
“While current market conditions are choppy, Central Texas is a core residential construction area moving forward,” says Bryan Glasshagel, Zonda’s principal of home building, Texas. “When combined, Austin and San Antonio are the third most active new-home market in the nation. Right behind Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston.”
At the Central Texas Dealmakers event, Zonda advisory experts, including Glasshagel, Ali Wolf, Nicollette Chapman, and Tim Sullivan will discuss the regional and national housing landscape. The event will also feature a welcome from Austin Mayor Kirk Watson and insight from on the ground from executives at Taylor Morrison, Chesmar Homes, Randolph Texas Development, and Santa Rita Ranch.
Below are additional highlights from a few Central Texas markets ahead of the event.
Strengths
In both San Antonio and Austin, investments related to each metro’s respective airports provide tailwinds for job growth and economic strength. Southwest Airlines’ new crew base at the Austin International Airport, slated to open in March, will create approximately 2,000 high-paying jobs with an average wage of $180,000. In San Antonio, efforts to advance a $1.2 billion expansion via an 18-gate terminal slated to open in 2028 will increase San Antonio International Airport’s capacity, nonstop routes, and international access as well as provide positive momentum for corporate growth, tourism, convention capabilities, and the region’s long-term competitiveness.
Additionally, Austin and San Antonio are projected to be among the leading metros for U.S. job growth through 2030. Austin is projected to increase job capacity by 9.7% and San Antonio by 6.6%. The region is supported by expanding technology, manufacturing, defense, and space industries, all positives for housing demand moving forward.
Weaknesses
Despite the long-term job growth projections, Austin added 10,100 jobs between December 2024 and December 2025. In the same period, San Antonio added just 13,100 jobs. Both are near the lowest levels for each respective metro outside of recessionary periods dating back to the early 1990s.
In San Antonio, the Independent School District (ISD) faces another $20 to $22 million budget cut which could trigger more job losses amid declining enrollment. The ISD closed 15 schools in 2024 and expects to lose 2,000 students in 2026-2027.
The Central Texas Dealmakers event takes place March 26 at the AT&T Hotel and Conference Center in Austin, Texas. Register here.
