Zonda’s latest Top 100 Metro Rankings for new-home closings show a market that is recalibrating rather than collapsing. The new-home closing data in this report, which tracks last 12-month (LTM) closings and year-over-year performance, highlights where demand is holding up best. Before we dive into the market-level data a quick national overview: national, LTM closings posted a roughly 8% decline year over year.
Texas Takes the Top Two
At the top of the rankings, the story starts where it often does: Texas. Dallas–Fort Worth holds the No. 1 spot with 41,346 LTM new-home closings, followed by Houston at No. 2 with 37,701. Both metros remain national production anchors, but the year-over-year shifts show a divergence: closings in Dallas are down roughly 9% year over year while Houston has seen them increase by nearly 5%.
Sun Belt Standouts Are Cooling, Not Collapsing
Below the top two, familiar Sun Belt destinations round out much of the top tier, but most are showing negative year-over-year growth as they cycle off elevated 2021 to 2023 volumes. For example, Phoenix (No. 3) and San Antonio (No. 4) both logged healthy LTM closings—20,975 and 17,902, respectively—but with mid to high single digit declines versus last year.
Austin (No. 5) tells the most striking story: still a top five market with 15,003 closings, but down almost 19% year over year, reflecting the rapid shift from red-hot demand to its current more cautious, incentive-heavy environment.
Quiet Over Performers: Midwest and Interior Markets
One of the more notable insights from the new-home closings data is the presence of “quiet winners” outside the traditional boom markets:
- Chicago–Naperville–Elgin comes in at No. 19 with 6,887 LTM new closings, one of the few large population markets to post a positive year-over-year gain (about 1.8%). That performance aligns with Chicago’s strong showing in Zonda’s January Market Ranking as a metro outperforming its own history, even if it doesn’t dominate headlines on raw volume.
- Boise, Idaho, and Greeley, Colorado, both show positive growth in new closings, a reminder that select Mountain West markets are still absorbing demand even as affordability has tightened.
- Other Midwestern markets like Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Louisville/Jefferson County are carving out a different kind of success story, pairing modest affordability with steadily improving new home penetration. These markets won’t challenge North Texas or Houston on volume, but from a portfolio standpoint, they can provide stability when headline Sun Belt markets are normalizing.
Builder Takeaways
For builders, the new-home closings rankings reinforce a few strategic points:
- Scale remains concentrated, but the “winner’s circle” is broader than just Texas and Florida.
- Year-over-year direction matters as much as level; markets with smaller declines—or modest gains—may offer better risk-adjusted opportunities.
As 2026 unfolds, the new-home closings data within Zonda’s Top 100 rankings will remain a key signal for where builders are willing to lean in, where they’re pulling back, and which metros are best positioned for the next leg of the cycle.
The insights in this article were taken from part of the Top 100 Metro Rankings published monthly in Zonda’s National Outlook subscription.
