After years of rapid growth, the Houston housing market is entering a normalizing phase. Zonda’s Dealmakers event in Houston will help shed light early in the year on where demand is resilient, where conditions are recalibrating, and where opportunities are emerging for builders.
The nation’s second-largest, new-home market is not immune to the challenges facing the national housing market, though the runway for sustained growth is strong for the Texas market. Houston offers affordability, large master-planned communities, strong in-migration, fewer land constraints, and infrastructure development.
“While residential construction activity slowed to end 2025, the Houston new-home market remains in relatively good shape,” says Bryan Glasshagel, Zonda’s principal of home building in Texas. “Demand will be choppy and the entry-level market is competitive and housing payment sensitive, but the market is not oversupplied in terms of lots and inventory levels are manageable. Even with slower market conditions, we are still seeing very high-quality communities coming to market across the region.”
At the Houston Dealmakers event, Zonda advisory experts Glasshagel, Ali Wolf, Nicollette Chapman, and Tim Sullivan will provide a national and regional perspective. Additionally, representatives from Perry Homes, Meritage Homes, Lisa Clark Land, and Ember Real Estate Investment & Development will share perspectives from on the ground in Houston.
Below are additional highlights of the Houston market ahead of the event.
Strengths
A $2 billion overhaul of the George R. Brown Convention Center in Houston will not only help reshape the market’s down region but also boost the region’s economy. Projections are the city will host 30% more events annually and attract $20 billion in new spending, strengthening Houston’s tourism and entertainment profile.
Zonda’s New Home Pending Sales Index for Houston has decreased on an annual basis, but trended upward on a month-over-month basis. New-home sales and the rate of sales have declined while closings have also posted annual declines. However, the median new-home price appreciated at a faster rate than the median existing price, re-establishing a premium between new and existing homes in the market.
Weaknesses
Dow’s plan to cut 4,500 jobs, announced early in 2026, could impact the Houston market in particular. The city is home to 7,000 Dow employees across six major sites. Additionally, Dow also employs nearly 4,500 contractors in Texas who could be impacted by the decision to cut down on employment. The labor market story in Houston is similar to Austin and San Antonio. The metro added 14,800 jobs between December 2024 and December 2025, a level lower than much of the recent past for Houston.
The Houston Dealmakers event takes place on March 26 at The Houstonian Hotel. Register here.
